INTELLIGENCE · PREDICTIVE
EstateOS Forecast Engine
ML-driven predictions · updated 06:00 WAT · confidence bands live
Model v4.2confidence 94%
30d Revenue
₦4.62B
+12.1%
90d Revenue
₦14.84B
+18.4%
180d Occupancy
68.2%
+8.4 pts
180d Collections
94.1%
+1.7 pts
Accuracy
91%
30d MAPE 3.8%
Risk Signals
14
4 material
Revenue forecast · 60 days with confidence band
₦M · 30d actual / 30d predicted · shaded = 90% CI
Occupancy forecast · per estate
60-day trajectory
Lekki PearlIbeju CityAbuja HillsPH Marina
Collections forecast · segmented
% receivables · confirmed / likely / delayed / at-risk
Scenario Planning Board
Model-driven capital & growth scenarios
Conservative
25%90d Revenue
₦11.2B
Occupancy
62%
Collections
91%
Cash close
₦6.1B
2 permit delays · Naira -8% · Ibeju HoT slips to Q1.
Expected
58%90d Revenue
₦14.84B
Occupancy
68%
Collections
94%
Cash close
₦9.1B
Pipeline conversion at trailing 90d rate · FX stable · Ibeju HoT Dec 20.
Aggressive
17%90d Revenue
₦18.6B
Occupancy
74%
Collections
96%
Cash close
₦12.4B
Diaspora Q1 pull-forward · UK LOI ₦8B locks · Enugu waitlist >40% conversion.
Per-estate growth forecast
Next 90 days
Lekki Pearl
+₦1.14B
+22%Ibeju City
+₦820M
+18%Abuja Hills
+₦640M
+14%Eko Atlantic Bay
+₦410M
+9%Magodo Vista
+₦320M
+6%PH Marina
-₦80M
-3%Forecast accuracy scoreboard
Model performance by domain
| Forecast Area | Accuracy | Last Error | Confidence | Signal Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue · 30d | 96.2% | ±₦42M | 94% | High |
| Revenue · 90d | 91.4% | ±₦180M | 88% | High |
| Occupancy | 93.1% | ±2.1 pts | 91% | Med |
| Collections | 95.6% | ±1.4 pts | 94% | High |
| Refund pressure | 84.2% | ±₦18M | 72% | Med |
| Contractor delay | 78.4% | ±4 days | 68% | Low |
Model Accuracy (30d MAPE)
3.8%
▼ -0.6 vs prior
Revenue Forecast Confidence
94%
▲ +2 pts
Occupancy Prediction Error
±2.1 pts
within band
Signal Freshness
42s
streaming
Live prediction signal feed
Lekki Pearl weekend campaign · +12% close probability
Model bumped Q1 forecast +3.4%
PH Marina refund pressure detected
Reduces 30d forecast by ₦42M
Ibeju City diaspora leads rising
UK/CA traffic surge · +₦180M pipeline
Abuja Hills inspection completion
Handover confidence +8 pts
Eko Bay payment delays detected
3 installments slipping · watch flag
Naira FX ticker · stable band held
USD flow assumption preserved
AI Forecast Brief
confidence 94%Strongest Estate
Lekki Pearl · +22% projected growth · VIP pipeline conversion best-in-class.
Weakest Estate
PH Marina · -3% drag persists into Q2 unless contractor swap completes Jan 15.
Revenue Opportunity
Diaspora Q1 launch pull-forward adds ₦620M expected · +₦1.4B best-case.
Executive Move
Lock 65% of forecast via signed LOIs · hedge 20% via Q2 diaspora spend.
Executive Action Queue
5 pending decisions
Push Lekki Pearl premium inventory
CMO · Q4 VIP release
5d
Freeze PH Marina discounting
CFO · until drainage update
24h
Increase Ibeju City diaspora campaign
CMO · UK/CA/US · ₦420M budget
10d
Trigger collections reminder sequence
Ops · 342 accounts
48h
Prepare 90d revenue outlook report
CFO · board pre-read
7d