DEVELOPMENT · RISK ENGINE

Development Risk Engine

Real-time risk intelligence across delays, contractors, permits, materials, labour, infrastructure and customer-facing milestones.

38 active risks22 delays · 5 overruns · 6 resource shortages · 4 critical estates

Total Risks

all severities

Delays

> 4 days

Budget Overruns

₦84M total

Resource Shortages

cement · power · labour

Permit Risks

FCT · Lagos · Enugu

Critical Estates

exec attention

+1 WoW

Risk category grid

Live category counts · severity · trend · estate exposure

Contractor risk

high

issues

+3 WoW

PH Marina · Enugu Skyline

Permit risk

medium

issues

+1 WoW

Kuje Heights · Abuja Hills

Material risk

high

issues

+2 WoW

Magodo Vista · PH Marina

Labour risk

medium

issues

0 WoW

Abuja Hills · Eko Bay

Weather risk

low

issues

-1 WoW

PH Marina · Eko Bay

Community risk

medium

issues

+1 WoW

Kano Ridge

Utility risk

medium

issues

+2 WoW

Ibadan Crest · Ibeju City

Compliance risk

low

issues

0 WoW

Enugu · Kuje Heights

Live development risk board

Sorted by severity · owner · recovery plan

Estate	Risk	Type	Severity	Owner	Days slip	Exposure	Recovery plan	Action
PH Marina	Drainage delay	contractor	critical	Coastal Works	18	₦42M	Replace contractor	Escalate
Enugu Skyline	Land prep behind	contractor	critical	Niger Build	14	₦22M	Freeze payment	Review
Abuja Hills	Perimeter contractor	delay	high	Atlas Infra	12	₦18M	Add crew	Approve
Eko Bay	Road rework	quality	high	Lagos Build	6	₦14M	QA audit	Inspect
Magodo Vista	Cement supply	resource	high	Sahel Cement	4	₦8M	Alternate supplier	Execute
Kuje Heights	Drainage permit	compliance	medium	FCT Office	2	permit gap	Legal follow-up	Track
Ibadan Crest	Transformer late	utility	medium	IBEDC	8	₦6M	NERC liaison	Escalate
Kano Ridge	Community access	community	medium	Comm. rel.	—	goodwill	Town-hall meeting	Schedule

Risk heat · estates × categories

PH Marina · Contract.

PH Marina · Budget

PH Marina · Customer

PH Marina · Legal

Enugu · Contract.

Enugu · Material

Enugu · Permit

Abuja · Contract.

Abuja · Permit

Abuja · Labour

Eko Bay · Quality

Eko Bay · Material

Magodo · Material

Ibadan · Utility

Kuje · Permit

Kuje · Compliance

Kano · Community

Lekki · All

AI FORECAST

Project delay probability (%)

AI forecast based on contractor pace, budget variance, permit status and resource availability.

Resource shortage tracker

Materials · equipment · labour · utilities

Resource	Status	Owner	Estates	ETA	Action
Cement	high risk	Procurement	Magodo · PH Marina	72h	Alternate supplier
Power equipment	delayed 8d	IBEDC	Ibadan · Ibeju	8d	Escalate NERC
Drainage materials	blocked	Supplier	PH Marina	5d	Alternate route
Labour crews	4 short	HR	Abuja Hills	3d	Redeploy
Machinery	2 units off	Fleet	Eko Bay	24h	Rent
Security install.	awaiting	Procurement	Kuje Heights	10d	Approve PO

PERMIT & COMPLIANCE

Permit progression · estate status by stage

Survey Approval

Drainage Permit

Power Approval

Registry Filing

Environmental

Handover Compliance

Lekki Pearl

Ibeju City

Abuja Hills

Eko Bay

PH Marina

Enugu Skyline

Kuje Heights

Magodo Vista

Ibadan Crest

cleared in-progress pending

Executive escalations

last 24 hours

PH Marina drainage · 18d behind

₦42M exposure · refund risk surfacing

Enugu Skyline land prep · 14d behind

Niger Build Group · contract review needed

Magodo Vista · cement shortage 72h

Sahel Cement supply disruption · alternate sourced

Ibadan Crest · transformer ETA +8d

IBEDC dependency · escalated to NERC liaison

10h

Kuje Heights drainage permit pending

FCT Office · legal follow-up filed

14h

Eko Bay road rework awaiting QA

4 sections · QA team dispatched

18h

Lekki Pearl roads back on schedule

Citadel Build added 2 crews · recovered 4 days

Recovery plan board

Kanban view · owner + status

To review

PH Marina contractor replacement

Enugu Skyline budget variance

In recovery

Abuja Hills perimeter crew +2

Magodo Vista cement sourcing

Escalated

Niger Build payment hold

PH Marina customer notification

Resolved

Lekki Pearl road recovery

Ibeju City power inspection

Development risk impact matrix

Operational · Customer · Financial · Legal

Operational impact

PH Marina drainage

critical

programme risk

Abuja perimeter

high

site sequencing

Magodo cement

high

site downtime

Customer impact

PH Marina · 14 buyers

critical

refund exposure

Enugu Skyline · 22 buyers

high

handover slip

Kuje Heights · 8 buyers

medium

communication gap

Financial impact

Niger Build variance

critical

₦22M

Coastal exposure

critical

₦42M

Lagos Build rework

high

₦14M

Legal impact

FCT drainage permit

medium

regulatory hold

Coastal breach clause

high

termination path

Kano access dispute

medium

community mediation

AI Development Risk Brief · 89% confidence

Top 3 risks

PH Marina drainage delay
Enugu Skyline land prep overrun
Abuja Hills perimeter timeline slip

Likely delay

PH Marina may slip 9–12 additional days without contractor replacement.

Recommended intervention

Reassign drainage recovery to Sahel Construction, freeze Niger Build payments, and approve additional crew for Abuja Hills.

Responsible owner

Executive Operations Lead · CFO co-sign

Recovery progress tracker · last 30 days

Executive KPI progression

Delays recovered

on track

/ 12

target 12

Risks closed

on track

/ 20

target 20

Exposure reduced ₦M

watch

/ 60

target ₦60M

Permits cleared

steady

/ 12

target 12

Cust. escalations prevented

on track

/ 30

rolling 30d

Estates back on track

ready

/ 7

of 7 flagged

Action Queue

5 pending

Reassign PH Marina drainage · Sahel

Ops · CFO co-sign

48h

Suspend Niger Build payments

Finance hold

12h

Approve Abuja Hills crew expansion

HR + Ops

24h

Customer comms · PH Marina

Marketing

24h

FCT permit intervention · Kuje

Legal

72h

Activity Timeline

PH Marina · escalation to CRITICAL
09:20
18-day slip confirmed
Sahel Construction pre-briefed
11:05
Recovery pack sent
Niger Build payment held
13:40
CFO instruction · ₦42M
Cement alt-supplier confirmed
15:15
Magodo Vista · 21d cover
Customer comms brief approved
17:00
14 PH Marina buyers · 24h send